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From ESPN Fantasy Staff
Breakouts
Who will join the ranks of the elite and help you win your league this season? Here are our expert picks for 2018's breakout stars.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
From 2012 to 2017, eight running backs were selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Six of those backs finished as top-10 fantasy backs as rookies. Plain and simple: When teams select a running back early, they plan to use him a ton. The Seahawks have made it clear they're moving back to a run-first offense, and 27th overall pick Penny is a strong bet to lead the backfield during most of the 2018 season. Looming Chris Carson shouldn't steal much work from the elusive Penny, who paced the nation in rushing while averaging 7.8 YPC at San Diego State last season. -- Mike Clay
Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins
Many scouts felt he was the best running back after Saquon Barkley. Guice's rushing rates during his final two collegiate seasons (6.3 yards per carry with 41.9 percent of his carries gaining at least 5 yards) were very much in the Barkley range (5.7 yards per carry with 37 percent of his carries gaining at least 5 yards). Now he lands in Washington, where, despite an injured offensive line last year and a struggling running game, Jay Gruden's Redskins ran the ball 54.7 percent of the time in goal-to-go situations, 10th most in the NFL. In fact, if you combined Rob Kelley's and Samaje Perine's goal-to-go carries from last season, that "player" would rank tied for third in goal-to-go carries with 21. While Chris Thompson will handle a lot of third downs, they want to limit his touches, so expect Guice to be more involved in passing work than you think. -- Matthew Berry
Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos
The third-round pick from Oregon might not be the pass-catcher incumbent starter Devontae Booker has been, but then again, we have seen Booker's act, and it is not special. Freeman is big and fast and should push Booker aside for the early-downs and goal-line work, with the potential for at least 1,000 rushing yards. The offense finally has a decent quarterback, so do not judge it off last season. There are myriad rookie running backs to consider, and Freeman has a good shot to emerge right away. -- Eric Karabell
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
While Jamaal Williams will probably begin the season as the Packers' starter, thanks in large part to his serviceable job in the role in 2017, Jones was the most dynamic talent of the team's three starters last season when given the chance. In his four starts, he averaged more than 11 carries a game, 6.4 yards per carry and 2.75 yards after contact per rush. Assuming he can stay healthy, he should overtake Williams fairly quickly, and given that chance, he could be a top-15 performer at the position. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
It's simple: If Barkley does all the things the Giants believe he can do, he will be the breakout player in 2018. Rookies universally find the going a little bit tougher initially, struggling to adapt their skill set to the NFL ... with the occasional exception of one position: running back. As opposed to rookie wide receivers, who have to improve route running, or rookie quarterbacks, who need to learn to read defenses, rookie running backs are more dependent on a match between their style and that of their new offense, along with opportunities to touch the ball. If you can run, catch and pass-protect, the opportunities go up. Barkley has all of this working in his favor. -- Stephania Bell
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon had a disappointing rookie season but still led all Bengals backs in rushing yards and tied for the lead in touchdowns. This season, the Bengals have Mixon as their feature every-down back. Cincinnati had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season but has upgraded the unit this offseason. The scheme is more wide open this season behind new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, so Mixon should have better scoring opportunities. Now established and ready to display the electric running ability he showed in college, Mixon has a good chance to break out this year. -- Andre Snellings
Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
There are a few ways to examine the excitement surrounding McKinnon, but let's start with his ability: He possesses uncommon athletic skills with terrific speed and nifty open-field work. He's got the soft hands to handle a massive passing game load and will spring chunk plays with regularity. Now let's get to the offensive fit, as he takes over a presumptive starting role in a Kyle Shanahan offense that is primed to involve the back as a pass-catcher. In 2017, Carlos Hyde accumulated 59 catches; he had never had a season with more than 33 targets prior to Shanahan's arrival, suggesting to me that 70-catch upside is on the radar for McKinnon. By the way, sometimes following the money can tell you something you need to know, and the 49ers made McKinnon one of the richest backs in football on an $8 million per-season contract. He'll be busy in the Bay Area. -- Field Yates
Will Fuller V, WR, Houston Texans
The Houston fantasy hype train is running at full speed for Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins -- and it should be going nearly as fast for Fuller. Last season, Fuller out-paced Hopkins in vertical YPA (13.5 for Fuller, 9.4 for Hopkins), stretch vertical YPA (Fuller 16.6, Hopkins 11.3) and overall YPA (Fuller 9.8, Hopkins 8.1). The Texans cannot want Hopkins to rack up close to 200 targets again this season, so sending more volume in Fuller's direction also would diversify their offense. Fantasy managers who want to partake in the Houston offense without paying full price to do so should strongly consider taking Fuller a round or two earlier than his current WR4 ADP value.
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
My zeal for Davis is in part tied to my appreciation for Mariota's potential as a passer, while also recognizing the increased utility and upside Davis can offer in new coordinator Matt LaFleur's offense. Davis, like his quarterback, is a former elite prospect felled so far by a blend of injuries and a role in an archaic offense. He can be found just after Crabtree in drafts, and pairing the two as a blend of high-floor and high-ceiling investments is a fun idea for managers to consider. -- Jim McCormick
Breakouts
Who will join the ranks of the elite and help you win your league this season? Here are our expert picks for 2018's breakout stars.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
From 2012 to 2017, eight running backs were selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Six of those backs finished as top-10 fantasy backs as rookies. Plain and simple: When teams select a running back early, they plan to use him a ton. The Seahawks have made it clear they're moving back to a run-first offense, and 27th overall pick Penny is a strong bet to lead the backfield during most of the 2018 season. Looming Chris Carson shouldn't steal much work from the elusive Penny, who paced the nation in rushing while averaging 7.8 YPC at San Diego State last season. -- Mike Clay
Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins
Many scouts felt he was the best running back after Saquon Barkley. Guice's rushing rates during his final two collegiate seasons (6.3 yards per carry with 41.9 percent of his carries gaining at least 5 yards) were very much in the Barkley range (5.7 yards per carry with 37 percent of his carries gaining at least 5 yards). Now he lands in Washington, where, despite an injured offensive line last year and a struggling running game, Jay Gruden's Redskins ran the ball 54.7 percent of the time in goal-to-go situations, 10th most in the NFL. In fact, if you combined Rob Kelley's and Samaje Perine's goal-to-go carries from last season, that "player" would rank tied for third in goal-to-go carries with 21. While Chris Thompson will handle a lot of third downs, they want to limit his touches, so expect Guice to be more involved in passing work than you think. -- Matthew Berry
Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos
The third-round pick from Oregon might not be the pass-catcher incumbent starter Devontae Booker has been, but then again, we have seen Booker's act, and it is not special. Freeman is big and fast and should push Booker aside for the early-downs and goal-line work, with the potential for at least 1,000 rushing yards. The offense finally has a decent quarterback, so do not judge it off last season. There are myriad rookie running backs to consider, and Freeman has a good shot to emerge right away. -- Eric Karabell
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
While Jamaal Williams will probably begin the season as the Packers' starter, thanks in large part to his serviceable job in the role in 2017, Jones was the most dynamic talent of the team's three starters last season when given the chance. In his four starts, he averaged more than 11 carries a game, 6.4 yards per carry and 2.75 yards after contact per rush. Assuming he can stay healthy, he should overtake Williams fairly quickly, and given that chance, he could be a top-15 performer at the position. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
It's simple: If Barkley does all the things the Giants believe he can do, he will be the breakout player in 2018. Rookies universally find the going a little bit tougher initially, struggling to adapt their skill set to the NFL ... with the occasional exception of one position: running back. As opposed to rookie wide receivers, who have to improve route running, or rookie quarterbacks, who need to learn to read defenses, rookie running backs are more dependent on a match between their style and that of their new offense, along with opportunities to touch the ball. If you can run, catch and pass-protect, the opportunities go up. Barkley has all of this working in his favor. -- Stephania Bell
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon had a disappointing rookie season but still led all Bengals backs in rushing yards and tied for the lead in touchdowns. This season, the Bengals have Mixon as their feature every-down back. Cincinnati had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season but has upgraded the unit this offseason. The scheme is more wide open this season behind new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, so Mixon should have better scoring opportunities. Now established and ready to display the electric running ability he showed in college, Mixon has a good chance to break out this year. -- Andre Snellings
Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
There are a few ways to examine the excitement surrounding McKinnon, but let's start with his ability: He possesses uncommon athletic skills with terrific speed and nifty open-field work. He's got the soft hands to handle a massive passing game load and will spring chunk plays with regularity. Now let's get to the offensive fit, as he takes over a presumptive starting role in a Kyle Shanahan offense that is primed to involve the back as a pass-catcher. In 2017, Carlos Hyde accumulated 59 catches; he had never had a season with more than 33 targets prior to Shanahan's arrival, suggesting to me that 70-catch upside is on the radar for McKinnon. By the way, sometimes following the money can tell you something you need to know, and the 49ers made McKinnon one of the richest backs in football on an $8 million per-season contract. He'll be busy in the Bay Area. -- Field Yates
Will Fuller V, WR, Houston Texans
The Houston fantasy hype train is running at full speed for Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins -- and it should be going nearly as fast for Fuller. Last season, Fuller out-paced Hopkins in vertical YPA (13.5 for Fuller, 9.4 for Hopkins), stretch vertical YPA (Fuller 16.6, Hopkins 11.3) and overall YPA (Fuller 9.8, Hopkins 8.1). The Texans cannot want Hopkins to rack up close to 200 targets again this season, so sending more volume in Fuller's direction also would diversify their offense. Fantasy managers who want to partake in the Houston offense without paying full price to do so should strongly consider taking Fuller a round or two earlier than his current WR4 ADP value.
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
My zeal for Davis is in part tied to my appreciation for Mariota's potential as a passer, while also recognizing the increased utility and upside Davis can offer in new coordinator Matt LaFleur's offense. Davis, like his quarterback, is a former elite prospect felled so far by a blend of injuries and a role in an archaic offense. He can be found just after Crabtree in drafts, and pairing the two as a blend of high-floor and high-ceiling investments is a fun idea for managers to consider. -- Jim McCormick
