Ox 51
Musclechemistry Guru
Tier 1 – Elite WR1s
1. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Odell Beckham, New York Giants
3. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
4. Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
5. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
Antonio Brown is the peoples’ No. 1 wide receiver. The Steelers wideout is on a Hall of Fame-level tear right now with over 100 receptions in each of the last five seasons.
Odell Beckham returns after missing most of last season with injuries. The All-Pro talent will find himself in a far superior offense than the one he left. Pat Shurmur made incredible use of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen by moving them around the formation at the flanker and slot positions. The new Giants head coach will help position Beckham for success in his contract season.
Much weeping and gnashing of teeth are directed at Julio Jones, his three touchdowns and roller-coaster stat line from 2017. Fade him at your own peril with the rest of the sheep. Jones cleared 1,400 yards in each of the last four seasons and yards beget touchdowns at the receiver position. We have no reason to assume Jones’ volume and yards per reception figures are in danger of dropping and he could easily stabilize his weekly production just by cracking the six to seven touchdown thresholds. A season like 2015 where he erupted to lead the NFL in catches (136) and yards from scrimmage (1,871) is always in the cards. If he falls into the second round, he’s a highway robbery.
Michael Thomas is a new member of the credentialed elite wide receiver club after amassing a pedigree that is worth the praise. The Pro Bowl receiver is a dominant separator and route-runner for a player, as his Reception Perception chart (below) demonstrates. Thomas ranked fourth among wideouts in 2017 with 22 catches of 20-plus yards but scored four of his five touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. This is a full-field threat. Thomas gobbled up a massive 149 targets in a season where Drew Brees threw his fewest pass attempts since 2009. If he maintains that percentage of the target share, a truly massive season could be in store for Thomas should the Saints take to the air more in 2018.
DeAndre Hopkins has proven over his five years in the NFL that the only thing that can slow him is Brock Osweiler. Here in 2018, the All-Pro wideout will be reunited with a healthy Deshaun Watson, who took his fantasy value to previously undiscovered heights. Hopkins racked up 551 yards and scored six of his 13 touchdowns in Watson’s starts alone. Natural statistical regression will bring that lofty touchdown total down a bit, but there’s no reason to fear a crash to the floor with this wideout.
Tier 2 – Difference-making WR1s
6. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
7. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
8. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
We’ve been chasing a truly transcendent season from A.J. Green for the last two years but have come up empty. After playing just 10 games in 2016, Green posted a career-low catch rate (52.4 percent) on a painfully slow Bengals offense that finished dead last in total yards and plays run. Green still posted the volume numbers we’re looking for out of an elite WR1, leading all receivers in percentage of their team’s air yards (46 percent). You can argue he has the profile to jump to Tier 1 with ease. He’s been impossible for me to pass up when he gets to the late second-round.
Keenan Allen and Davante Adams are both excellent picks at the Round 2/3 turn. Adams has yet to turn in a 1,000-yard season in the NFL but is a near-lock to do so this year as Aaron Rodgers’ top target entering 2018. He’s the lone proven talent without a major question surrounding his health or age. Adams should push for a career-high in targets and air yards, giving him the upside to lead the NFL in touchdowns as Rodgers’ WR1.
Tier 3 – Fringe WR1s
9. Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
10. Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
11. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
12. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
13. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
Adam Thielen paced the Vikings in catches and yards as an explosive weapon out of the slot, finishing top-10 in yards per route run, per Player Profiler. Stefon Diggs is a mega-talent who is one of the premier route-runners in the NFL, separating at levels in line with elite receivers like Antonio Brown. When he’s on the field, there are few players more dangerous. My personal strategy with these two Vikings receivers has been to target both in the third-round of drafts and break the tie based on roster construction. When there is already a stable WR1 on my roster, I go Diggs. If I went RB/RB or RB/Gronk in Rounds 1 and 2, then Thielen is the pick as my WR1. An approach like this exposes you to Diggs’ weekly ceiling but shelters you from his injury risk.
With Andrew Luck on the up and up, T.Y. Hilton is once again a safe early-round selection. No other wide receivers on the Colts roster is a proven commodity in the NFL. Hilton is a sneaky candidate to push for the NFL-lead in targets. My colleague Brad Evans is on the other side of this debate.
Doug Baldwin should be a Tier 2 player or at least atop this group. However, his current injury status should leave even his most bullish backers hesitant to click his name over others in this tier. If healthy, Baldwin has a clear path to a top-10 positional finish. He’s the lone Seattle wide receiver with a recent resume of consistent production and should inherit a quarter of Russell Wilson’s targets on a team whose stripped-down defense will require shootouts.
Tier 4 – High-end WR2s with weekly upside and volatility
15. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
16.Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
17. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
18. Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns
19. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Tyreek Hill finished as a top-five wide receiver last season but will need several breaks for a 2018 encore. The vertical receiver made more of his hay in the deep game and drew just one target inside the 10. With Sammy Watkins coming to town and Travis Kelce entrenched, it’s tough to see Hill getting the necessary volume bump to keep his fantasy scoring afloat.
The prize of Chicago’s intriguing free agency crop, Allen Robinson dons the blue and orange after four seasons with the Jaguars. Moving to the Bears and landing in Matt Nagy and Mark Helfrich’s uptempo, progressive spread offense is a huge coup for Robinson. The talented wideout spent his years in Jacksonville stuck at X-receiver constantly running against press coverage and getting low-percentage deep throws from an unstable passer. Nagy’s Chiefs offense were the best in the league at finding space for its receivers.
Talk about exactly what Robinson needed. He should clear 130 targets with ease in a Bears passing attack that’s full of interesting but unproven options.
Josh Gordon is tenuously positioned inside the top-20 receiver despite not being at Browns camp. Select him or fade him at your own risk.
Tier 5 – WR2s of all shapes and sizes to target in mid-rounds
20. Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
21. Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos
22. Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles
23. Golden Tate, Detroit Lions
24. Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams
25. Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
26. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers
27. Michael Crabtree, Baltimore Ravens
28. Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions
While the world bemoans Josh Gordon’s absence from Browns camp, the lack of returns in the Corey Coleman trade and rookie Antonio Callaway’s marijuana incident, Jarvis Landry keeps on sitting pretty as the best bet to lead the team in targets. Fantasy’s ultimate cockroach – situations, quarterbacks and play-callers change but Landry just keeps soaking up volume. Fantasy analysts have repeated the likely correct talking point that Landry won’t see the same obscene raw target numbers he earned in Miami so much that his ADP (WR26) bakes in all the downside. He’s an ideal pick in the fifth-round over a cavalcade of mercurial running back selections.
2017 just wasn’t Emmanuel Sanders’ year. Beyond the poor quarterback play, Sanders also had to deal with a high ankle sprain. Now healthy coming into 2018 and paired with a passing upgrade in Case Keenum, Sanders is a tempting value in fantasy leagues. It’s easy to project Sanders for 120-plus targets once again this year and you just don’t find receivers with that type of workload going off the board outside the top-30 receivers in ADP.
Sammy Watkins gets a boost with his move to Kansas City. The Rams ran Watkins almost exclusively at X receiver on low percentage routes. The Chiefs will move Watkins around the formation, including taking valuable reps in the slot. While that will improve the quality of passes he receives, it’s tough to project him for the type of targets he’ll need to vastly outproduce his ADP. He’s a better value than his fellow Chiefs wide receiver.
It’s hard to carve out the targets for JuJu Smith-Schuster to repay his top-20 positional ADP. Pittsburgh just added tantalizing deep threat maven James Washington in the second round of the draft to an offense with a future Hall of Fame wideout who will push to lead the team in targets and running back who will demand about 100 looks himself. With an already unsustainable catch rate and yards per target figure from his rookie year, both among the most volatile yearly stats, the lack of a projectable volume increase makes him a red-light pick at cost.
Tier 6 – WR3s who have the role and upside to outkick their ADP
29. Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins
30. Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans
31. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
32. Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers
33. Chris Hogan, New England Patriots
34. Jordy Nelson, Oakland Raiders
35. Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins
36. Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers
37. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
38. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Kenny Stills is quietly one of the premier wide receiver values in fantasy this season. With an ADP of WR53, he’s a near-lock to outkick his cost. Stills’ Reception Perception chart (below) shows that he is one of the NFL’s top vertical threats, but also finds success on short to intermediate routes like the flat, comeback and dig. DeVante Parker can’t get his career off the tarmac and with target blackhole Jarvis Landry out of the picture, there is a ton of volume to soak up. Stills should be considered the favorite to lead the team in receiving.
Tier 7 – The group that represents how deep this position goes
39. Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans
40. Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles
41. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
42. Kelvin Benjamin, Buffalo Bills
43. Sterling Shepard, New York Giants
44. Robby Anderson, New York Jets
45. Will Fuller, Houston Texans
46. Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
47. Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers
48. Cameron Meredith, New Orleans Saints
Tier 8 – Priority late round picks
49. John Brown, Baltimore Ravens
50. DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
51. Allen Hurns, Dallas Cowboys
52. Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
53. Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars
54. Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins
55. D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
56. John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals
57. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
58. Taywan Taylor, Tennessee Titans
59. Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Tier 9 – Best of the rest and best-ball targets
60. Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars
61. Willie Snead, Baltimore Ravens
62. DeSean Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
63. Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears
64. Paul Richarson, Washington Redskins
65. Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
66. Tyrell Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
67. Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
68. Albert Wilson, Miami Dolphins.
69. Mike Wallace, Philadelphia Eagles
1. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Odell Beckham, New York Giants
3. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
4. Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
5. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
Antonio Brown is the peoples’ No. 1 wide receiver. The Steelers wideout is on a Hall of Fame-level tear right now with over 100 receptions in each of the last five seasons.
Odell Beckham returns after missing most of last season with injuries. The All-Pro talent will find himself in a far superior offense than the one he left. Pat Shurmur made incredible use of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen by moving them around the formation at the flanker and slot positions. The new Giants head coach will help position Beckham for success in his contract season.
Much weeping and gnashing of teeth are directed at Julio Jones, his three touchdowns and roller-coaster stat line from 2017. Fade him at your own peril with the rest of the sheep. Jones cleared 1,400 yards in each of the last four seasons and yards beget touchdowns at the receiver position. We have no reason to assume Jones’ volume and yards per reception figures are in danger of dropping and he could easily stabilize his weekly production just by cracking the six to seven touchdown thresholds. A season like 2015 where he erupted to lead the NFL in catches (136) and yards from scrimmage (1,871) is always in the cards. If he falls into the second round, he’s a highway robbery.
Michael Thomas is a new member of the credentialed elite wide receiver club after amassing a pedigree that is worth the praise. The Pro Bowl receiver is a dominant separator and route-runner for a player, as his Reception Perception chart (below) demonstrates. Thomas ranked fourth among wideouts in 2017 with 22 catches of 20-plus yards but scored four of his five touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. This is a full-field threat. Thomas gobbled up a massive 149 targets in a season where Drew Brees threw his fewest pass attempts since 2009. If he maintains that percentage of the target share, a truly massive season could be in store for Thomas should the Saints take to the air more in 2018.
DeAndre Hopkins has proven over his five years in the NFL that the only thing that can slow him is Brock Osweiler. Here in 2018, the All-Pro wideout will be reunited with a healthy Deshaun Watson, who took his fantasy value to previously undiscovered heights. Hopkins racked up 551 yards and scored six of his 13 touchdowns in Watson’s starts alone. Natural statistical regression will bring that lofty touchdown total down a bit, but there’s no reason to fear a crash to the floor with this wideout.
Tier 2 – Difference-making WR1s
6. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
7. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
8. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
We’ve been chasing a truly transcendent season from A.J. Green for the last two years but have come up empty. After playing just 10 games in 2016, Green posted a career-low catch rate (52.4 percent) on a painfully slow Bengals offense that finished dead last in total yards and plays run. Green still posted the volume numbers we’re looking for out of an elite WR1, leading all receivers in percentage of their team’s air yards (46 percent). You can argue he has the profile to jump to Tier 1 with ease. He’s been impossible for me to pass up when he gets to the late second-round.
Keenan Allen and Davante Adams are both excellent picks at the Round 2/3 turn. Adams has yet to turn in a 1,000-yard season in the NFL but is a near-lock to do so this year as Aaron Rodgers’ top target entering 2018. He’s the lone proven talent without a major question surrounding his health or age. Adams should push for a career-high in targets and air yards, giving him the upside to lead the NFL in touchdowns as Rodgers’ WR1.
Tier 3 – Fringe WR1s
9. Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
10. Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
11. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
12. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
13. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
Adam Thielen paced the Vikings in catches and yards as an explosive weapon out of the slot, finishing top-10 in yards per route run, per Player Profiler. Stefon Diggs is a mega-talent who is one of the premier route-runners in the NFL, separating at levels in line with elite receivers like Antonio Brown. When he’s on the field, there are few players more dangerous. My personal strategy with these two Vikings receivers has been to target both in the third-round of drafts and break the tie based on roster construction. When there is already a stable WR1 on my roster, I go Diggs. If I went RB/RB or RB/Gronk in Rounds 1 and 2, then Thielen is the pick as my WR1. An approach like this exposes you to Diggs’ weekly ceiling but shelters you from his injury risk.
With Andrew Luck on the up and up, T.Y. Hilton is once again a safe early-round selection. No other wide receivers on the Colts roster is a proven commodity in the NFL. Hilton is a sneaky candidate to push for the NFL-lead in targets. My colleague Brad Evans is on the other side of this debate.
Doug Baldwin should be a Tier 2 player or at least atop this group. However, his current injury status should leave even his most bullish backers hesitant to click his name over others in this tier. If healthy, Baldwin has a clear path to a top-10 positional finish. He’s the lone Seattle wide receiver with a recent resume of consistent production and should inherit a quarter of Russell Wilson’s targets on a team whose stripped-down defense will require shootouts.
Tier 4 – High-end WR2s with weekly upside and volatility
15. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
16.Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
17. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
18. Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns
19. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Tyreek Hill finished as a top-five wide receiver last season but will need several breaks for a 2018 encore. The vertical receiver made more of his hay in the deep game and drew just one target inside the 10. With Sammy Watkins coming to town and Travis Kelce entrenched, it’s tough to see Hill getting the necessary volume bump to keep his fantasy scoring afloat.
The prize of Chicago’s intriguing free agency crop, Allen Robinson dons the blue and orange after four seasons with the Jaguars. Moving to the Bears and landing in Matt Nagy and Mark Helfrich’s uptempo, progressive spread offense is a huge coup for Robinson. The talented wideout spent his years in Jacksonville stuck at X-receiver constantly running against press coverage and getting low-percentage deep throws from an unstable passer. Nagy’s Chiefs offense were the best in the league at finding space for its receivers.
Talk about exactly what Robinson needed. He should clear 130 targets with ease in a Bears passing attack that’s full of interesting but unproven options.
Josh Gordon is tenuously positioned inside the top-20 receiver despite not being at Browns camp. Select him or fade him at your own risk.
Tier 5 – WR2s of all shapes and sizes to target in mid-rounds
20. Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
21. Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos
22. Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles
23. Golden Tate, Detroit Lions
24. Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams
25. Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
26. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers
27. Michael Crabtree, Baltimore Ravens
28. Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions
While the world bemoans Josh Gordon’s absence from Browns camp, the lack of returns in the Corey Coleman trade and rookie Antonio Callaway’s marijuana incident, Jarvis Landry keeps on sitting pretty as the best bet to lead the team in targets. Fantasy’s ultimate cockroach – situations, quarterbacks and play-callers change but Landry just keeps soaking up volume. Fantasy analysts have repeated the likely correct talking point that Landry won’t see the same obscene raw target numbers he earned in Miami so much that his ADP (WR26) bakes in all the downside. He’s an ideal pick in the fifth-round over a cavalcade of mercurial running back selections.
2017 just wasn’t Emmanuel Sanders’ year. Beyond the poor quarterback play, Sanders also had to deal with a high ankle sprain. Now healthy coming into 2018 and paired with a passing upgrade in Case Keenum, Sanders is a tempting value in fantasy leagues. It’s easy to project Sanders for 120-plus targets once again this year and you just don’t find receivers with that type of workload going off the board outside the top-30 receivers in ADP.
Sammy Watkins gets a boost with his move to Kansas City. The Rams ran Watkins almost exclusively at X receiver on low percentage routes. The Chiefs will move Watkins around the formation, including taking valuable reps in the slot. While that will improve the quality of passes he receives, it’s tough to project him for the type of targets he’ll need to vastly outproduce his ADP. He’s a better value than his fellow Chiefs wide receiver.
It’s hard to carve out the targets for JuJu Smith-Schuster to repay his top-20 positional ADP. Pittsburgh just added tantalizing deep threat maven James Washington in the second round of the draft to an offense with a future Hall of Fame wideout who will push to lead the team in targets and running back who will demand about 100 looks himself. With an already unsustainable catch rate and yards per target figure from his rookie year, both among the most volatile yearly stats, the lack of a projectable volume increase makes him a red-light pick at cost.
Tier 6 – WR3s who have the role and upside to outkick their ADP
29. Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins
30. Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans
31. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
32. Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers
33. Chris Hogan, New England Patriots
34. Jordy Nelson, Oakland Raiders
35. Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins
36. Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers
37. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
38. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Kenny Stills is quietly one of the premier wide receiver values in fantasy this season. With an ADP of WR53, he’s a near-lock to outkick his cost. Stills’ Reception Perception chart (below) shows that he is one of the NFL’s top vertical threats, but also finds success on short to intermediate routes like the flat, comeback and dig. DeVante Parker can’t get his career off the tarmac and with target blackhole Jarvis Landry out of the picture, there is a ton of volume to soak up. Stills should be considered the favorite to lead the team in receiving.
Tier 7 – The group that represents how deep this position goes
39. Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans
40. Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles
41. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
42. Kelvin Benjamin, Buffalo Bills
43. Sterling Shepard, New York Giants
44. Robby Anderson, New York Jets
45. Will Fuller, Houston Texans
46. Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
47. Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers
48. Cameron Meredith, New Orleans Saints
Tier 8 – Priority late round picks
49. John Brown, Baltimore Ravens
50. DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
51. Allen Hurns, Dallas Cowboys
52. Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
53. Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars
54. Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins
55. D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
56. John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals
57. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
58. Taywan Taylor, Tennessee Titans
59. Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Tier 9 – Best of the rest and best-ball targets
60. Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars
61. Willie Snead, Baltimore Ravens
62. DeSean Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
63. Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears
64. Paul Richarson, Washington Redskins
65. Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
66. Tyrell Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
67. Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
68. Albert Wilson, Miami Dolphins.
69. Mike Wallace, Philadelphia Eagles
